31 Maple Ave

Harrisonville, NJ 08062

$80,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 2016 · SingleFamily · Pending · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,345/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$995
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $304/mo
• Annual: $3,654/yr
• Cap rate: 10.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.31%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 2.93%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kingsway Regional School District (rural): math 29% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #175 of 472 in NJ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Kingsway Regional High School (math 31% / reading 51%, grade F, #180 of 399 statewide, top 46%, 1,947 students, 10% FRL) — zoned schools at 10% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 42% of rent.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 1,047 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (183 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $80k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major: roof — No visible damage, but age is unknown
• Major: flooring — No visible flooring, but age is unknown
• Major: interior walls/paint — No visible interior, but age is unknown
• Major: kitchen — No visible kitchen, but age is unknown
• Major: bathrooms — No visible bathrooms, but age is unknown