Apex (Sawyier) Plan

Lexington-Fayette, KY 40324

$89,995B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,493 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 318 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,837/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$500
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $329/mo
• Annual: $3,948/yr
• Cap rate: 10.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.67%
• DSCR: 1.70
• 1% rule: 2.04%
• Cash to close: $25,199

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $329 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 318 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Scott County (town): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #31 of 165 in KY (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Western Elementary School (math 48% / reading 49%, grade D, #110 of 676 statewide, top 17%, 624 students, 34% FRL); Scott County Middle School (math 38% / reading 53%, grade D+, #32 of 217 statewide, top 15%, 864 students, 35% FRL); Scott County High School (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #73 of 254 statewide, top 28%, 1,197 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 546 units permitted in Scott County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Scott County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 318 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.