18780 S Central Point Rd #37

Oregon City, OR 97045

$210,995D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,333 sqft · Built 2026 · Other · Active · 200 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,040/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,106
• Tax + insurance: −$352
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $154/mo
• Annual: $1,845/yr
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.12%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $59,079

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $211k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (3.3% below list).
• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#12 in OR, #271 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Oregon City SD 62 (suburban): math 18% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #40 of 58 in OR (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: John Mcloughlin Elementary School (math 17% / reading 57%, grade F, #205 of 412 statewide, top 51%, 615 students, 17% FRL); Gardiner Middle School (math 20% / reading 39%, grade F, #86 of 128 statewide, top 72%, 671 students, 30% FRL); Oregon City Senior High School (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #94 of 143 statewide, top 70%, 1,931 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.7% in Oregon City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.