1211 Lawson Rd

Murray, KY 42071

$119,500B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,185 sqft · Built 1988 · Other · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,491/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax + insurance: −$199
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $352/mo
• Annual: $4,228/yr
• Cap rate: 9.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.64%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $33,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#380 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Calloway County (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #19 of 165 in KY (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 256 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Calloway County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Calloway County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $120k implies a 497% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.5% in Murray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.