1815 Woodard Rd

Webster, NY 14580

$279,900F

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,416 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,284/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$518
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-181/mo
• Annual: $-2,170/yr
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.77%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (18.4% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $228k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#221 in NY, #3,471 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D+, amenities F.
• Webster Central School District (suburban): math 62% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #184 of 590 in NY (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 243 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $280k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.9% in Webster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.