9200 W Bellfort St #40

Houston, TX 77031

$99,000D

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,173 sqft · Built 1979 · Condo · Active · 372 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,113/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$236
• HOA: −$347
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-223/mo
• Annual: $-2,679/yr
• Cap rate: 3.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.66%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $60k (39.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 372 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $60k (39.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $374 appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Valley West El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 653 students, 93% FRL); Welch Middle (math 11% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,543 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 645 students, 97% FRL); Sharpstown H S (math 7% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 1,855 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 372 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?