5 Jared Cir

Heber Springs, AR 72543

$189,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,804 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Active · 152 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,340/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-145/mo
• Annual: $-1,740/yr
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.29%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (29.1% below list).
• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $134k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#329 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Heber Springs School District (town): math 50% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #19 of 238 in AR (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heber Springs Elem. School (math 48% / reading 40%, grade F, #164 of 454 statewide, top 37%, 756 students, 61% FRL); Heber Springs Middle School (math 60% / reading 58%, grade B, #13 of 201 statewide, top 7%, 380 students, 46% FRL); Heber Springs High School (math 37% / reading 49%, grade F, #37 of 292 statewide, top 12%, 484 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Cleburne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cleburne County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 10 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.1% in Heber Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.