3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,443 sqft ·
Built 1910
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 49 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,175/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$865
Tax + insurance
−$164
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$247
Net cashflow
$-100/mo
Annual
$-1,200/yr
Cap rate
5.56%
Cash-on-cash
-2.60%
DSCR
0.88
1% rule
0.71%
Cash to close
$46,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (10.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (28.7% below list).
It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $118k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#288 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
Martin County West School District (rural): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #187 of 301 in MN (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Trimont Elementary (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #492 of 857 statewide, top 61%, 185 students, 48% FRL); Martin County West Junior High (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #188 of 258 statewide, top 73%, 95 students, 47% FRL); Martin County West Senior High (math 44% / reading 64%, grade C-, #87 of 471 statewide, top 22%, 224 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 28% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Martin County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
9 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 9 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29