15583 83rd Ln N

The Acreage, FL 33470

$650,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,125 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Pending · 171 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,071/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$842
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,065
• Net cashflow: $-244/mo
• Annual: $-2,934/yr
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $607k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $507k (22.0% below list).
• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($572k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $507k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pierce Hammock Elementary School (math 69% / reading 73%, grade A-, #320 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 468 students, 35% FRL); Western Pines Community Middle (math 66% / reading 64%, grade A-, #99 of 571 statewide, top 17%, 991 students, 42% FRL); Seminole Ridge Community High School (math 36% / reading 56%, grade D-, #220 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 2,262 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 599 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $5,071/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($122k/yr) (locally 43% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.