15051 Fm 920

Peaster, TX 76487

$212,900C+

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,377 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,355/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,116
• Tax + insurance: −$365
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $379/mo
• Annual: $4,551/yr
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.63%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $59,612

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $213k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $213k).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $207k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Poolville ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #385 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Poolville El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 380 students, 52% FRL); Poolville J H (math 42% / reading 42%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 172 students, 55% FRL); Poolville H S (math 70% / reading 64%, grade B, #163 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 170 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $82k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 1.9% in Peaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.