3039 Horizon Ln #2105

Pelican Marsh, FL 34109

$335,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 2002 · Condo · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,889/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax + insurance: −$386
• HOA: −$853
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$817
• Net cashflow: $76/mo
• Annual: $913/yr
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.97%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $93,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $335k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($913/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $335k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $325k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $988 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Osceola Elementary School (math 78% / reading 74%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 621 students, 32% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 29% FRL vs 55% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 424 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.