851 Audubon Dr #851

Bradenton, FL 34209

$319,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,096 sqft · Built 1988 · Condo · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,124/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax + insurance: −$958
• HOA: −$983
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$656
• Net cashflow: $-1,146/mo
• Annual: $-13,750/yr
• Cap rate: 3.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.66%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $89,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $319k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (52.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (2.1% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $153k (52.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anna Maria Elementary School (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #170 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 190 students, 36% FRL); Martha B. King Middle School (math 48% / reading 39%, grade D, #329 of 571 statewide, top 58%, 848 students, 63% FRL); Manatee High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,983 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 31% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 644 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 112d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 76% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 12660% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,124/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 17% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?