2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
675 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 17 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,564/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$522
Tax + insurance
−$232
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$328
Net cashflow
$481/mo
Annual
$5,775/yr
Cap rate
12.90%
Cash-on-cash
23.59%
DSCR
2.05
1% rule
1.57%
Cash to close
$27,860
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $481 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Cumberland Valley SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #52 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Sporting Hill El Sch (math 55% / reading 71%, grade B, #298 of 1,518 statewide, top 20%, 554 students, 34% FRL); Mountain View Ms (math 46% / reading 70%, grade B, #59 of 512 statewide, top 12%, 1,378 students, 26% FRL); Cumberland Valley Hs (math 66% / reading 24%, grade D-, #191 of 437 statewide, top 44%, 3,035 students, 25% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Questions for listing agent
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-9FAJBS0YXE6BXD
· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29