475 Durdin Dr

Silsbee, TX 77656

$121,500C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Built 1923 · SingleFamily · Pending · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,394/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$637
• Tax + insurance: −$276
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $188/mo
• Annual: $2,256/yr
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.98%
• DSCR: 1.40
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $34,020

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $122k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $188 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $122k).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $840 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#263 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Silsbee ISD (town): math 25% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #614 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.2% in Silsbee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.