23 Hartzell Ave

Niles, OH 44446

$195,000C+

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,428 sqft · Built 1901 · MultiFamily · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,154/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $480/mo
• Annual: $5,754/yr
• Cap rate: 9.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.54%
• DSCR: 1.47
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 1×2bd/1.0ba + 1×3bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $240/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#628 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Niles City (suburban): math 37% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #507 of 656 in OH (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 10 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $195k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 5.8% in Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,154/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 820% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.