40 Eagle Creek Dr

Kyle, TX 78640

$79,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 2017 · Manufactured · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,336/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $503/mo
• Annual: $6,040/yr
• Cap rate: 13.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.00%
• DSCR: 2.20
• 1% rule: 1.67%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $503 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Science Hall El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 591 students, 76% FRL); Armando Chapa Middle (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,236 of 1,662 statewide, top 76%, 668 students, 65% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 43% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2089 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 79% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.