61200 Indian Paint Brush Rd

Anza, CA 92539

$289,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,088 sqft · Built 2006 · Manufactured · Active · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,322/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$607
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-289/mo
• Annual: $-3,463/yr
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.28%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $289k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-289 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (17.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (19.7% below list).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $232k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,301 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hamilton Elementary (306 students, 81% FRL); Hamilton (math 24% / reading 54%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 376 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.5% in Anza — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.