202 S Gibson St

Warrenton, GA 30828

$119,900C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,692 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $948/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $23/mo
• Annual: $276/yr
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.82%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($276/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (21.0% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $95k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#460 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Warren County (rural): math 10% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #162 of 174 in GA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 87% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Warren County Middle School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #356 of 470 statewide, top 78%, 159 students, 100% FRL); Warren County High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #353 of 424 statewide, top 86%, 159 students, 100% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at -40% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $120k implies a 431% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.