1320 Seminole Ave

Fort Denaud, FL 33935

$275,000C+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,700 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Pending · 294 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,280/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $181/mo
• Annual: $2,174/yr
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.82%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (17.1% below list).
• It's been on market 294 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $228k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#635 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Glades (town): math 38% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #63 of 73 in FL (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Glades School (math 54% / reading 47%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 646 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 52% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 950 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Glades County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Glades County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.0% in Fort Denaud — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,280/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 498% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 294 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.