3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,271 sqft ·
Built 1982
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 16 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,182/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,048
Tax + insurance
−$535
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$458
Net cashflow
$140/mo
Annual
$1,680/yr
Cap rate
7.13%
Cash-on-cash
3.00%
DSCR
1.13
1% rule
1.09%
Cash to close
$55,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#75 in TX, #2,697 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, commute F.
Kennedale ISD (suburban): math 27% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #522 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: R F Patterson El (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 566 students, 61% FRL); Kennedale J H (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,200 of 1,662 statewide, top 73%, 625 students, 60% FRL); Kennedale H S (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 1,002 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 38% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.6% in Arlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-9HJMJYA5CQ41C5
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29