510 Tri-lakes Rd

Humansville, MO 65674

$159,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Pending · 256 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,242/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $-124/mo
• Annual: $-1,486/yr
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.32%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (22.3% below list).
• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#209 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Humansville R-IV (rural): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #247 of 324 in MO (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Humansville Elem. (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #850 of 1,115 statewide, top 78%, 177 students, 0% FRL); Humansville Middle School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #189 of 391 statewide, top 51%, 104 students, 0% FRL); Humansville High (math 30% / reading 70%, grade D+, #117 of 521 statewide, top 23%, 87 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 74% district-wide (74 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11321% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.9% in Humansville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.