7 Sunsan Beach Rd

Deltaville, VA 23043

$340,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,247/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax + insurance: −$315
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $-1,112/mo
• Annual: $-13,348/yr
• Cap rate: 2.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.18%
• DSCR: 0.41
• 1% rule: 0.37%
• Cash to close: $95,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (57.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (63.3% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (63.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#434 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety B+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Middlesex County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #90 of 131 in VA (top 69%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Middlesex Elementary (math 40% / reading 53%, grade D-, #817 of 1,108 statewide, top 74%, 611 students, 97% FRL); St. Clare Walker Middle (math 33% / reading 57%, grade D, #274 of 342 statewide, top 81%, 287 students, 87% FRL); Middlesex High (math 92% / reading 82%, grade A, #16 of 319 statewide, top 5%, 346 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 44% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Middlesex County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 1.1% in Deltaville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.