Ashbury XL Plan

Hamlin, NY 14464

$129,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 877 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,305/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$282
• Tax + insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $659/mo
• Annual: $7,910/yr
• Cap rate: 21.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.53%
• DSCR: 3.34
• 1% rule: 2.43%
• Cash to close: $15,058

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $659 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 877 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $372 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#557 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Brockport Central School District (town): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #369 of 590 in NY (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ginther Elementary School (535 students, 44% FRL); A D Oliver Middle School (math 27% / reading 58%, grade D-, #373 of 729 statewide, top 52%, 685 students, 48% FRL); Brockport High School (math 97% / reading 77%, grade A, #311 of 1,100 statewide, top 30%, 946 students, 43% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Brockport Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 21.0% vs local median 4.1% in Hamlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 877 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: foundation/structure — No visible foundation/structure
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No visible HVAC/mechanicals
• Major: exterior/siding — No visible exterior/siding
• Major: interior walls/paint — No visible interior walls/paint
• Major: roof — No visible roof
• Major: windows — No visible windows