900 Ledgestone Dr

Mahtomedi, MN 55115

$319,900D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,050 sqft · Built 2007 · Townhouse · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,727/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$401
• HOA: −$385
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $-309/mo
• Annual: $-3,712/yr
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.14%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $89,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (14.8% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $265k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#116 in MN, #2,658 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Mahtomedi Public School District (suburban): math 67% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #12 of 301 in MN (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $271k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 1.8% in Mahtomedi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.