163 Blair Pl

Danville, VA 24540

$214,900D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,105 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,702/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $42/mo
• Annual: $510/yr
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.85%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $60,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($510/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (20.8% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#91 in VA, #2,952 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, crime D-, commute F.
• Danville City Public School District (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #128 of 131 in VA (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 54 units permitted in Danville city in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Danville County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $175k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.2% in Danville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.