136 N Chestnut St Unit 16a

New Paltz, NY 12561

$275,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 810 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,351/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$440
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-26/mo
• Annual: $-307/yr
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.40%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-307/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (14.5% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $235k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#128 in NY, #2,042 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, housing D+, employment D-.
• New Paltz Central School District (suburban): math 67% / reading 88% proficiency, ranked #70 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 1.8% in New Paltz — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.