Plan 1663 Modeled Plan

Winchester, CA 92596

$460,990D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,663 sqft · Built — · Condo · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,630/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,859
• Tax + insurance: −$909
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$762
• Net cashflow: $-900/mo
• Annual: $-10,805/yr
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.08%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $152,676

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $461k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-900 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $415k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $363k (21.3% below list).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($420k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $363k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $58k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $55k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#992 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$94k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.