Plan 1663 Modeled Plan

Winchester, CA 92596

$467,990D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,663 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 144 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,652/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,862
• Tax + insurance: −$910
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$767
• Net cashflow: $-886/mo
• Annual: $-10,632/yr
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.96%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $152,801

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $468k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-886 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $418k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $365k (22.0% below list).
• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $365k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $58k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $55k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#992 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Winchester Elementary (683 students, 79% FRL); Rancho Viejo Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 975 students, 88% FRL); Tahquitz High (math 14% / reading 42%, grade F, #777 of 1,170 statewide, top 67%, 1,727 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 66% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 404 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$94k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.