409 - 411 E Rose St

Stockton, CA 95202

$499,900B

16 bd · 16.0 ba · 2,904 sqft · Built 1912 · MultiFamily · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,891/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax + insurance: −$457
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,447
• Net cashflow: $2,365/mo
• Annual: $28,381/yr
• Cap rate: 11.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.28%
• DSCR: 1.90
• 1% rule: 1.38%
• Cash to close: $139,972

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 6-bed/4.0-bath units multifamily listed at $500k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive. Per door: $591/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $500k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($485k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $485k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $500k implies a 212% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $140k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,891/mo this rent would consume 267% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 837% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.