40 Cottage Grove Cir

Blue Hills, CT 06002

$365,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,730/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax + insurance: −$678
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$783
• Net cashflow: $354/mo
• Annual: $4,252/yr
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.16%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $102,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $365k).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $354k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#14 in CT, #1,343 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F.
• Bloomfield School District (suburban): math 16% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #137 of 153 in CT (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 67 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,867 units permitted in Capitol Planning Region in 2024 (1,399 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $365k implies a 265% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.4% in Blue Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,730/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 692% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.