3156 Esplanade #316

Chico, CA 95973

$145,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Built 2002 · Manufactured · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,092/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$765
• Tax + insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $715/mo
• Annual: $8,576/yr
• Cap rate: 12.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.99%
• DSCR: 1.93
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $40,852

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $146k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $715 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $144k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#195 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Chico Unified (urban): math 40% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #117 of 517 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shasta Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 646 students, 45% FRL); Bidwell Junior High (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 990 students, 57% FRL); Pleasant Valley High (math 54% / reading 80%, grade B, #139 of 1,170 statewide, top 13%, 1,840 students, 46% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Chico Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 2.6% in Chico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.