6741 Lincoln #83

Buena Park, CA 90620

$159,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1975 · Manufactured · Active · 174 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $1,666/mo
• Annual: $19,991/yr
• Cap rate: 18.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.90%
• DSCR: 3.00
• 1% rule: 2.20%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $159k).
• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#300 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, amenities A; Watch: health & safety D, cost of living F.
• Centralia Elementary (suburban): math 59% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #213 of 1,400 in CA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Marino Elementary (493 students, 72% FRL); Orangeview Junior High (math 20% / reading 44%, grade F, #207 of 498 statewide, top 42%, 681 students, 88% FRL); Western High (math 21% / reading 57%, grade F, #558 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 1,704 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 49% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 61% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Centralia Elementary average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 49 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $159k implies a 224% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.9% vs local median 2.1% in Buena Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.