4098 Lost Springs Trl

South Fulton, GA 30135

$230,000D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,064 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,163/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$366
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $79/mo
• Annual: $943/yr
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.46%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $79 ($943/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (6.0% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $216k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Douglas County (suburban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 174 in GA (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Holly Springs Elementary School (math 49% / reading 59%, grade C, #204 of 1,228 statewide, top 17%, 567 students, 49% FRL); Chapel Hill Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #147 of 470 statewide, top 33%, 1,098 students, 55% FRL); Chapel Hill High School (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #203 of 424 statewide, top 48%, 1,609 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 595 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.6% in South Fulton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.