21210 E Cottonwood Cir

Luther, OK 73054

$170,000D+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,287/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $6/mo
• Annual: $69/yr
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($69/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (24.3% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $129k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#374 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Luther (rural): math 20% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #146 of 270 in OK (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Luther Es (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #255 of 845 statewide, top 35%, 336 students, 0% FRL); Luther Hs (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #222 of 447 statewide, top 52%, 248 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 5,365 units permitted in Oklahoma County in 2024 (569 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oklahoma County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $139k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.