23122 NW 189th Ave

High Springs, FL 32643

$262,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 98 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,317/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,374
• Tax + insurance: −$480
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-24/mo
• Annual: $-284/yr
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $73,360

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $262k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-284/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (11.6% below list).
• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $232k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#506 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.0% in High Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.