117 Maple Ave

Flanders, NY 11901

$489,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 633 sqft · Built 1942 · SingleFamily · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,391/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,564
• Tax + insurance: −$467
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-1,142/mo
• Annual: $-13,709/yr
• Cap rate: 3.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.01%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.49%
• Cash to close: $136,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $489k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (41.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (51.1% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($474k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $239k (51.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,107 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Phillips Avenue School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,846 of 2,108 statewide, top 91%, 578 students, 50% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $278k; list at $489k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.