3362 Lox St

Bryans Road, MD 20640

$325,000D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,320 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,700/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$419
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-23/mo
• Annual: $-276/yr
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.30%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-276/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (16.9% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $270k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#315 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, cost of living D+, schools D.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $259k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.2% in Bryans Road — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.