299 Lincoln Blvd

Lorenz Park, NY 12534

$269,900B

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1942 · SingleFamily · Pending · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,138/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$412
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$659
• Net cashflow: $651/mo
• Annual: $7,814/yr
• Cap rate: 9.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.34%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $651 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $262k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#498 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Hudson City School District (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #494 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $137k; list at $270k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• At $3,138/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1083% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.