2 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,492 sqft ·
Built 1973
· Condo
· Active
· 1 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,096/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,389
Tax + insurance
−$211
HOA
−$854
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$440
Net cashflow
$-798/mo
Annual
$-9,582/yr
Cap rate
2.68%
Cash-on-cash
-12.92%
DSCR
0.43
1% rule
0.79%
Cash to close
$74,172
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $265k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-798 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (20.9% below list).
Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $210k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#314 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities F.
Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Sterling Park Elementary School (math 58% / reading 59%, grade B-, #735 of 2,144 statewide, top 35%, 780 students, 54% FRL); South Seminole Middle School (math 53% / reading 50%, grade C, #232 of 571 statewide, top 41%, 995 students, 69% FRL); Lake Howell High School (math 36% / reading 49%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 2,205 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: HOA is 41% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).
Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $95k; list at $265k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 4.1% in Casselberry — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-9RHY005PJJJ5H0
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29