840 Highgarden Cir

Noble, OK 73068

$178,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,311 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 318 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,563/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax + insurance: −$297
• HOA: −$7
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-2/mo
• Annual: $-29/yr
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $49,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $178k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-29/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (12.2% below list).
• It's been on market 318 days — a 12% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#107 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Noble (suburban): math 23% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #108 of 270 in OK (top 40%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Katherine I Daily Es (379 students, 0% FRL); Noble Hs (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #222 of 447 statewide, top 52%, 883 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 214 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 592 units permitted in Cleveland County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cleveland County population projected at +40% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.7% in Noble — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 318 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.