51063 Twentynine Palms Hwy #52

Morongo Valley, CA 92256

$42,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,098 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,058/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax + insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $1,377/mo
• Annual: $16,520/yr
• Cap rate: 45.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 140.48%
• DSCR: 7.25
• 1% rule: 4.90%
• Cash to close: $11,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $42k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $42k).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $39k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($290 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#505 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 45.6% vs local median 4.1% in Morongo Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.