21 S Marion Ave

Ventnor City, NJ 08406-3029

$2,500,000D+

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,248 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $20,431/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,110
• Tax + insurance: −$1,659
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,290
• Net cashflow: $1,371/mo
• Annual: $16,454/yr
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.35%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $700,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $2.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.04M (18.3% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $2.04M (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $92k of equity ($17k loan paydown + $75k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#202 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, commute A-, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Ventnor City School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #266 of 472 in NJ (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $725k; list at $2.50M implies a 245% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $700k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$150k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.1% in Ventnor City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.