5 Vernon Pl

Southport, NY 14871

$280,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,995/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$429
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$629
• Net cashflow: $468/mo
• Annual: $5,618/yr
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.02%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $468 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $272k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#690 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, employment D, health & safety D.
• Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 6.5% in Southport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.