15 Vista Palm Ln #102

Florida Ridge, FL 32962

$127,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1974 · Townhouse · Active · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,720/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$622
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $-87/mo
• Annual: $-1,044/yr
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.69%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 1.35%
• Cash to close: $35,560

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $127k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (12.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $127k).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#353 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Vero Beach Elementary School (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,596 of 2,144 statewide, top 75%, 599 students, 80% FRL); Oslo Middle School (math 39% / reading 45%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 864 students, 72% FRL); Vero Beach High School (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 2,847 students, 50% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 36% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $127k implies a 189% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.5% in Florida Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?