18958 County Road 356

Big Sandy, TX 75792

$85,500B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,348/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$448
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $408/mo
• Annual: $4,898/yr
• Cap rate: 12.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.46%
• DSCR: 1.91
• 1% rule: 1.58%
• Cash to close: $23,940

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $86k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $408 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($591 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#710 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Gladewater ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #594 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (4.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.