2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
768 sqft ·
Built 1981
· Manufactured
· Active
· 50 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,643/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$467
Tax + insurance
−$80
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$345
Net cashflow
$751/mo
Annual
$9,011/yr
Cap rate
16.42%
Cash-on-cash
36.16%
DSCR
2.61
1% rule
1.85%
Cash to close
$24,920
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $751 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 84/100 on livability (#39 in WA, #700 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D-.
Tumwater School District (urban): math 57% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #37 of 291 in WA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 2.7% in Tumwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-9W0DJ68EPRBAPD
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29