1204 Shepard St

Lansing, MI 48912

$79,900C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 320 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,080/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $215/mo
• Annual: $2,577/yr
• Cap rate: 9.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.52%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.35%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $215 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 320 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#94 in MI, #2,182 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Lansing Public School District (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #650 of 760 in MI (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pattengill School (600 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 68% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 100 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 350 units permitted in Ingham County in 2024 (186 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ingham County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 10 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 6.0% in Lansing — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 320 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.