132 Wilderness Rd

Danville, KY 40422

$162,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,542 sqft · Built 1935 · Other · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,527/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$850
• Tax + insurance: −$270
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $87/mo
• Annual: $1,039/yr
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.29%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $45,360

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $162k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (5.8% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $153k (5.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#85 in KY, #3,148 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Danville Independent (town): math 26% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #110 of 165 in KY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mary G. Hogsett Primary School (367 students, 81% FRL); John W. Bate Middle School (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #165 of 217 statewide, top 77%, 399 students, 66% FRL); Danville High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 481 students, 63% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Boyle County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boyle County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $162k implies a 281% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.8% in Danville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.