25372 Jade Rd

Lenwood, CA 92311

$119,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 990 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,648/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $579/mo
• Annual: $6,950/yr
• Cap rate: 12.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.86%
• DSCR: 1.93
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $579 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,118 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Barstow Unified (town): math 11% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #482 of 517 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $119k implies a 600% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.