637 Pennsylvania Ave

Elmira, NY 14904

$92,000B

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,607 sqft · Built 1880 · SingleFamily · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,331/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax + insurance: −$316
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $253/mo
• Annual: $3,038/yr
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.38%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.45%
• Cash to close: $25,760

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $92k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $91k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $636 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#832 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $92k implies a 283% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.