1844 Dolphin Dr

Seabrook, TX 77586

$145,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,055/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$919
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-56/mo
• Annual: $-669/yr
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.96%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-669/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (6.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $135k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#359 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bay El (math 41% / reading 50%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 645 students, 48% FRL); Seabrook Int (math 53% / reading 57%, grade B-, #248 of 1,662 statewide, top 15%, 963 students, 30% FRL); Clear Falls H S (math 49% / reading 64%, grade C, #357 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 2,473 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 328 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.2% in Seabrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.